Year: 2025 | Month: December | Volume 70 | Issue 4
Statistical Investigation on Market Cointegration and Causality of Price Signals among Selected Markets of Major Oilseeds in Andhra Pradesh
Ch Ch V D Balaji
D Ramesh
V Srinivasa Rao and G Raghunadha Reddy
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.4.2025.7
Abstract:
Present study made an attempt to understand the market Cointegration and causality of price signals among the selected markets (Adoni, Kurnool and Yemmiganur) of Major oilseeds (Groundnut, Castor and Sunflower) in Andhra Pradesh. For this, secondary time series data on market prices had been collected during the period from January 2011 to April 2023 from Agriculture Market Intelligence Centre, Lam Guntur and various selected tools namely Johansen Method of Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Engle Granger causality test were also been employed. It was resulted with conclusion of stable price cointegration across the selected markets of Groundnut, Castor and Sunflower in the long run relation through Johansen’s Cointegration test. Where from VECM estimates on Groundnut prices, Error Correction Term (ECT) was identified as negative and significant for Adoni and Kurnool market
only, which confirmed that these series would be return to its previous long run equilibrium with the price adjustment (speed of recovery) from short run disequilibrium to long run equilibrium by 29.1% and 23.3% per month respectively. Granger Causality test revealed that there existed long run bi-directional causality for markets of Kurnool and Yemmiganur i.e., price transmission would occur in both directions for Groundnut and castor.
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