Year: 2025 | Month: March | Volume 70 | Issue 1
Growth and Stability of Indian Cereal Production under the National Food Security Mission: Insights from Hazell Decomposition and Instability Analysis
Sudha Kumari and Rakesh Singh
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.1.2025.11
Abstract:
India’s increasing population and changing dietary needs have made food security a top priority. To address this challenge, the government launched the National Food Security Mission (NFSM) in 2007, aiming to enhance the production of essential crops and ensure sustainable agricultural growth. Measuring the trends of growth and variability in agricultural production is crucial to understanding how outputs have changed over time and evaluating the effectiveness of such initiatives. This study examined the
effect that NFSM has on the growth and variability of rice, wheat, pulses, and coarse cereals (including millets, maize, sorghum, and barley) using data obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization database. The study period is divided into pre-NFSM (1993-2007) and post-NFSM (2008-2022) for rice, wheat and pulses cereals, and pre-NFSM (2007-2014) and post-NFSM (2015-2022) for coarse cereals. Three analytical methods, i.e., Compound Annual Growth Rate analysis, Cuddy Vella Instability Index,
and Hazell decomposition analysis were used to estimate crop production growth, instability and the influencing factors of fluctuations in crop production. The findings indicate that NFSM has significantly increased the growth of production of rice, wheat and particularly pulses. Following the implementation of the NFSM, the overall growth rate of area for coarse cereals decreased, except maize. However, the growth rate of production and yield increases, except for barley. Furthermore, the predominant factors
influencing the total change in average production are changes in mean yield and mean area. Only sorghum’s production was primarily influenced by an increase in cultivation area. The production of variance for all crops is influenced mainly by yield variance and area-yield covariance. However, only barley and millet are primarily affected by area variance and covariance. Thus, the significant increase in production, yield, and stability demonstrates the mission’s food security achievement. To maintain
and enhance the success of NFSM, it is crucial to prioritize ongoing technical progress, implement steps to increase resilience and adopt inclusive policies.
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