Year: 2025 | Month: March | Volume 70 | Issue 1
Impact of Export and Import Dynamics on the Balance of
Trade for Turmeric-Producing Countries: A Markov Chain
Analysis
Sachin Kumar Verma
Harendra Pratap Singh Choudhri
Deepak Kumar
Sanjay Kumar and Ram Suresh Sharma
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.1.2025.8
Abstract:
The study reveals significant fluctuations in turmeric area, production, yield, and trade patterns over time. From 1950 to 2023, average area and output increased by 2.72% and 4.05%, respectively, while yield growth remained at 1.32%. The average production value peaked in Period 4 at 1031.84 before falling to 129.11 in Period 5. The coefficient of variation increased sharply from 16.62 to 81.44 in Period 5, indicating greater unpredictability and variability. From 2015 to 2024, India’s turmeric trade experienced fluctuations in export growth, increasing by 39.6% in 2016 and 54.1% in 2018, but decreasing by 17.8% in 2017 and 46.1% in 2024. Germany, Ethiopia, and Myanmar are important hubs in India’s turmeric export network. Effective strategies are needed to support sustainable practices, increase value chain efficiency, and improve market access. Policy focus for turmeric cultivation in 2024 should focus on supporting
organic farming, investing in research to develop disease-resistant, high-yield varieties, strengthening local processing facilities, implementing cluster-based sustainable development, and integrating digital platforms for direct market access and improved export logistics.
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