Year: 2021 | Month: December | Volume 66 | Issue 4
An Empirical Study of Indian Commercial Banks through
Financial Distress Models
Niharika Prasad
Saurabh Singh
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.4.2021.23
Abstract:
This study has predicted commercial banks’ financial distress in India using the Altman Z-score model and the Emerging market model. All the Public sector banks listed in the National stock exchange were considered in this research from 2010 to 2019. The Altman Z-score formula is Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 1.0X5. The criteria for assessing a Z-score are > 2.99 is categorized as a safe zone; healthy banks will fall under this category. 1.80 < Z-score < 2.99 is the gray zone, banks falling under this category have a chance of being safe as well as going bankrupt. Z-score < 1.80 is a distress zone; banks’ falling under this category are at high risk of bankruptcy and may go bankrupt within two years. Emerging market model is Z = 3.25 + 6.56X1 + 3.26X2 + 6.72X3 + 1.05X4. The criteria for assessing emerging market Z-score are > 2.60 is categorized as a safe zone; 1.10 < Z-score < 2.60 is the gray zone and Z-score < 1.10 is a distress zone. Independent t-test was used test the hypothesis of the study. The results of both models (Altman Z-score model and Emerging market Z-score model) separately provided outcomes that were two extremes in the opposite direction. The findings of the emerging market Z-score model were more relatable to reallife observed (during the period selected for study) scenarios in the banks, i.e., both public sector as well private sector banks are in the safe zone.
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